Toronto on track for record house sales this year
Sales have been especially strong in the sector that was widely seen as being oversupplied and at risk of a price slump — condominiums.
Susan Pigg – Toronto Star
Toronto is on track to see a record number of house sales this year as demand — and prices — continue to climb beyond almost anyone’s expectations, even for condos.
Comment: And who were all of the “experts” who predicted in 2013 that this year would slow down, would be a soft landing? How about those who predicted an outright crash? Wanna step up and admit you were wrong? Or just say it will happen next year… and next year… and next year…
More than 8,000 homes sold across the GTA in September, bringing the number of transactions up almost 11% for the first three quarters of 2014 compared to the same period last year, according to figures released by the Toronto Real Estate Board Friday.
Comment: Heck, I know I was wrong. I predicted 3-5% more sales. Not even close!
Prices were up 8.5% for the same period, year over year, with the average year-to-date price, for houses and condos combined, hitting $563,813, says TREB.
Comment: Same again, I said it would be 3-5% for prices as well. Oops.
“If the current pace of sales growth remains in place, we could be flirting with a new record for residential sales reported by TREB members this year,” says TREB’s director of market analysis, Jason Mercer.
Sales have been especially strong in the sector that, just a year or so ago, was widely seen as being oversupplied and at risk of a price slump — condominiums.
Comment: Well, some supposed “experts” said that, but all evidence pointed to the contrary. I said we should watch for condos to pick up, as houses were getting too pricey for many. It is usually the simplest explanation, my dear Watson.
The continued, unrelenting climb of Toronto prices — to the point where price growth here, as well as in Vancouver and Calgary, are skewing the national average — has renewed some calls for Ottawa to push up interest rates to slow down housing demand.
Comment: Can we stop saying that? Sure, the top markets skew the average upward, same as the bottom markets pull the numbers down. That is what an average is, the split sum of all parts, high and low.
That could be an even more dangerous move, says Capital Economics economist David Madani in a note released Friday, given the high levels of household debt in the country.
House prices have already started to drop in Ottawa, Montreal and Halifax, he points out. And he anticipates that “demand fatigue” will spread over time to Canada’s major housing markets, as well.
Comment: Can he stop talking? Can you stop interviewing him? He has never been right, continually wrong. Why do we care what he thinks? Ottawa prices rose 3% last month an Montreal rose 2% – though Nova Scotia fell 2.5% provincially (can’t get Halifax only). That makes him 2/3rds wrong on his latest “info”.
Yet the Toronto housing numbers continue to defy the naysayers.
With the average sale price of detached homes in the City of Toronto now almost $1 million and intense competition for semis driving prices into the stratosphere, condos are now the go-to form of relatively affordable housing for folks just trying to get a toehold in a market that, so far at least, shows no signs of slowing.
Resale condo transactions were up 20.2% in September over the same month of 2013, according to TREB’s figures. Most of the growth, some 32.2%, was in the 905 regions compared to a 15.6% increase in sales year-over-year in the 416 region.
Prices were up an average of 7.1% — 9.2% in the City of Toronto compared to 3.5% in the 905 regions, says TREB.
That means the average sale price of a condo in the 416 is now skirting $400,000 — $395,505 — while it’s climbed just past $300,000 in the 905 regions.
The house sector continues to be plagued by a shortage of listings, especially in some high-demand areas of the City of Toronto, notes TREB.
Comment: But none of this is a shock. Lack of housing listings is driving up prices, and supply shortages and high prices are forcing people to reconsider their options. Thus, they are buying more condos. This is what I said last year would happen.
That has helped push detached house prices up, yet again, by 11.5% in the city and 8% in the suburbs. That brought the average sale price for a detached to $951,792 in Toronto and $656,003 in the 905 regions in September.
Sales for detached homes were up 7.6% across the GTA — 10.6% in the city and 6.5% in the suburbs.
Semi-detached house sales climbed 11.5% in September, year over year, as prices hit an average $689,414 in the 416 region and $447,485 in the 905 regions.
Townhouse sales were up 7.2% year over year with September sale prices averaging $476,408 in the 416 region and $409,327 in the 905 regions.
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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960
Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto real estate agent with Century 21 Regal Realty.
He did not write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who
are interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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