Tag Archives: real estate price appreciation
Cost of housing finally cooling off
By Tavia Grant – Globe and Mail
Housing has been a key source of inflationary pressure in recent years, but that may finally be starting to cool off.
Statistics Canada doesn’t include house-price increases in its basket of consumer prices, though it does incorporate related costs such rent, repairs and property taxes. Shelter makes up almost a third of the CPI weighting.
And those components may finally be decelerating.
Mortgage rates fell earlier this week after the Bank of Canada cut its key lending rate, and they may fall further as the central bank continues to lower borrowing costs. Homeowners’ replacement costs, which represents the cost of maintaining a housing structure, have been decelerating since July and last month’s increase was the slowest in more than five years.
“Housing price appreciation is moderating as the sector matures which is to say that the high cost of single family homes is pushing consumer demand into multi-dwelling units which tend to have lower pricing point,” said Stewart Hall, market strategist at HSBC Securities (Canada). “Maturing, not imploding.”
The cost of shelter was still a key reason why inflation rose at a 2.4% pace last month. Mortgage interest costs rose 7.3% and homeowners’ replacement costs gained 4.4% from a year earlier, Statscan said.
The real estate market is generally cooling off. Across Canada, the growth in new housing prices has held steady for more than a year, at 6.1%.
Friday’s report showed Alberta, of all places, is leading the slowdown in replacement costs. Last month, they rose at a 9% annual pace — a far cry from the record gain of 48.6% in September, 2006.
Lower borrowing costs means housing should become more affordable this year, Royal Bank of Canada predicted Thursday.
Shelter is the biggest expenditure most households make, and the rise and fall of housing costs are closely linked with most Canadians’ well-being.
Almost 3 of every 10 Canadians spent more than 30% of household income on shelter at some point between 2002 and 2004, Statscan said in a separate study Friday.
People living alone, single moms, renters and immigrants — most likely in Vancouver or Toronto — are all most likely to spend more than that, the study said.
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