Low-maintenance units in demand

By Garry Marr, Postmedia News

[dropcap]A[/dropcap] new study from the Conference Board of Canada predicts that by 2030 about 80% of new housing demand will come from people in their golden years.

That demand will give rise to a new wave of homes that are very low-maintenance, such as condominiums or seniors’ residences. At the same time the shift will put downward pressure on the prices of traditional single detached homes, which have skyrocketed over the past 15 years.

Already the Canadian Home Builders’ Association says its members are catering to the aging population by building more condos and retirement communities.

“Baby boomers are the largest demographic cohort in our population and as such have been the main drivers of household formation for the past 40 years,” the report says.

Forty years ago, when those same boomers were in their 20s, they helped drive the market to new heights with new housing starts reaching a record 274,000 in 1976.

Then it was the boomer’s children, the echo-boomers, who helped drive the market last decade as they began forming households.

Now, it’s going full circle with boomers downsizing.
[pullquote]
In 2006, 57% of condo owners were over the age of 50, while 17% were over the age of 75.[/pullquote]

The trend is only expected to pick up steam as boomers abandon their single-family homes.

“The point is not just retirement homes. The trend as we look ahead is more and more to multiple-family dwellings,” says Pedro Antunes, director and analysis at the Conference Board, and one of the report’s authors.

“The changes will happen but they will be slow over time.”

Antunes says the stock of single-family homes probably won’t decline as others fill the gap and live in them, but there will not be as many new ones built and renovation activity will also slow.

That could affect long-term prices for single-family homes, although other economic factors could intervene.

“It’s going to be a smaller cohort (that wants single-family houses) but with a housing stock that large you would probably expect an easing in price for those types of homes,” Antunes says.

He expects boomers to stay in the labour market through their senior years, which will keep them in urban areas.

“They might work less hours and part time, but that means housing that is close to workplaces and not an exodus to the country.”

John Kenward, chief operating officer of Canadian Home Builders’ Association, says the effect is already being felt.

“That’s why you hear so much about lifestyle communities these days,” Kenward says.

“People look for communities with golf courses, recreation features for things like walking. It’s not what you might think of as retirement.”

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto Realtor with Century 21 Regal Realty. He did not
write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who are
interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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