Canadian Press

A new forecast suggests fears of a housing bubble and a price collapse are misplaced and predicts rising population and land supply restrictions will result in Toronto house prices doubling over the next 25 years.

The forecast by Central 1 Credit Union says higher mortgage rates in the next three years will restrain housing sales in Ontario as a whole, but not cause a market correction.

Comment: While none of us may have ever heard of them, at least they are making realistic predictions that are based on what is actually happening.

Ontario home prices will rise about 4% a year through 2016, down from a decade-long annual average of about 6%.

It also predicts the Toronto condo market will slow as builders delay new construction in the face of weaker demand.

Comment: Toronto condo projects will also slow as the amount of prime land to build on downtown decreases.

Central 1 says the total number of new condos in Toronto in pre-construction, under construction, occupancy and sell-out phases will be about 100,000 units at the end of 2013.

Comment: And remember, there are a good 60,000 in the construction, occupancy and sell-out phases – with all but 1,000 or so already sold. Of the rest, they are likely 40-70% sold, depending on the project.

Central 1 also predicts Ontario’s overall rental apartment vacancy will hold steady at 2.6% through 2014, before declining to less than 2% in 2016.

Comment: With Toronto around half that.

The forecast says the average price of residential home sales is forecast to rise at 4% to 5% annually through 2016 in the Toronto, Northeast and Stratford-Bruce regions.

Average price increases of 2% to 3% annually are forecast in the Northwest, London, Windsor-Sarnia, Hamilton-Niagara and Muskoka-Kawarthas regions.

Average price growth of around 1% annually is forecast for the Kitchener-Waterloo, Ottawa and Kingston-Pembroke regions.

Central 1 expects sales growth through 2016 will be concentrated in Toronto, although sales are also forecast to rise in the Northeast, Windsor-Sarnia and Stratford-Bruce regions.

Sales will remain near 2013 levels in the Ottawa, London and the Northwest regions. Sales are forecast to slow in the Kingston-Pembroke, Hamilton-Niagara, Muskoka-Kawarthas and Kitchener-Waterloo regions.

Other housing data released Thursday, suggested the market was slowing, but not in an alarming way.

Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index showed Canadian home prices edged down in November, reversing the gains seen the month before and suggesting a softer than usual market.

Comment: Not really, sales ALWAYS slow down in November. Stay dismal through December and January, then pick up again in Feb or March, depending on the weather. Then sales peak in April or May, slow a bit in June, flatten in July and August as everyone is on vacation, then pick up again in September for the fall market. October is decent, then things slow again in November and the cycle repeats.

The index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed national prices slipped 0.1% last month from October. The average November monthly gain over 15 years of data has been 0.1%, Teranet said.

“This year’s retreat does not signal a buoying market,” the report said.

Prices were up 3.4% from a year ago, an acceleration from October’s 3.1% price gain, due to a greater drop in prices in November 2012.

Statistics Canada says its new housing price index rose 0.1% in October, after being flat in September.

The agency says Hamilton was the top contributor to the national increase, with prices rising 0.6% in October.

Builders there cited market conditions and higher list prices for new phases of development as the reasons for the price increase.

The largest monthly price increase in October occurred in Windsor, where prices were up 0.7%.

Builders in Windsor said rising material costs, higher land development costs and market conditions contributed to the gain.

Prices declined in Charlottetown, Vancouver and Victoria and were unchanged in seven of the 21 metropolitan areas surveyed.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto Realtor with Century 21 Regal Realty. He did not
write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who are
interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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