When housing prices fall it is often because other things are happening in the economy.

By Susan Pigg – Toronto Star Moneyville

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]oronto is rapidly transforming into a “vertical world” because of an unprecedented condo boom and greenbelt policies that are making single-family homes “precious commodities,” a new report says.

Provincial efforts to limit sprawl have helped drive up house — and land — prices across the GTA to the point where the dream of raising children in a house with a yard may be dying, warns the annual survey by PricewaterhouseCooper released Tuesday.

Strong immigration to the GTA, unbridled investor confidence in Canada and “overconfidence” in the housing market have also helped fuel the boom and pushed the average price of a single family home in the GTA to almost $500,000, notes the survey, Emerging Trends in Real Estate.

It warns that all that overexuberance is expected to ease in 2012 as the U.S. and Europe continue to struggle, leading to a slowdown in building and house prices.

“Typically restrained Canadian consumers had been on uncharacteristic spending and home-buying binges encouraged by low interest rates, but their self-assurance has ebbed, and job growth has decelerated in response to all the noise about European and U.S. debt woes,” the survey notes.

[pullquote]”Greed is off the table” and Canadians are likely to revert to their more typical “better-to-be-cautious investment approach.”[/pullquote]

The 33rd annual Emerging Trends 2012 report is a survey of some 950 builders, investors, real estate and property management experts in Canada, the United States and Latin America.

The roughly 100 Canadian experts surveyed, especially those from the GTA, paint a fascinating portrait of how development, investment pressures and immigration is already changing the look of Toronto.

They note how:

* investor demand has skewed the condo market toward smaller, more easily rentable units that are unsuitable for families and increasingly unaffordable

* “nosebleed” land prices are forcing even retail development upwards into “Eurostyle” mixed-use condo and office developments where shops will increasingly be located two or more floors above street level

* Canada’s stellar economic stability has lead to “close to bulletproof” demand for office space in the downtown

* suburban office space could see some softening of demand as companies trade off sprawling, cheaper sites — and long, costly commutes — to follow their gen Y talent into the core

* the hotel sector is unlikely to see significant growth, or uptick in tourists, anytime soon given continued economic uncertainty in two of its biggest markets, the United States and Europe.

While all of the respondents were unnamed, when it comes to downtown development they had a lot to say, even cautioning against development approvals that have allowed “pretty scary” 60-storey condo towers aimed primarily at Asian investors.

“This activity is unsustainable,” says one respondent.

“The accommodations may work for young professionals more interested in the local bar and restaurant scene, but do not accommodate the needs of families with children.”

At the same time, house prices are rising at a faster pace than wages.

The survey urges urban planners to “pay greater attention” to providing parks and recreational space in and around the condo corridors in the city core.

Respondents even offer a few investment tips:

Now is a “great time” to buy that U.S. dream home or retirement condo in a prime location. While it will be years until the housing market rebounds, savvy investors are finding they can usually charge enough rent to cover costs until they decide to eventually sell or move in.

Mexico is “no go” now for investment, given drug violence.

Buy or hold infill land in the GTA because prices that seem inflated today could look like a real deal as demand for building sites shows no sign of letting up.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto Realtor with Century 21 Regal Realty. He did not
write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who are
interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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