RBC says low rates boosted affordability, while low oil prices prompt new listings

CBC News

It’s getting a easier to afford a home in Calgary and Regina, but housing is moving out of reach for many buyers in Toronto and Vancouver, according to research by RBC Economics.

Comment: That is because oil prices fell by half, causing chaos in the oil patch. Regina has been falling for some time, no idea why.

The rate cut announced by the Bank of Canada in January helped make housing more affordable in most of Canada, because mortgage costs fell, according to RBC’s March report on housing trends and affordability.

Comment: Contrary to all “experts” who said mortgage rates would rise. Heck, the smart money now is on a further cut to 0.5% by the BoC.

Higher home prices in Ontario and some parts of British Columbia meant the average affordability level across the country deteriorated, RBC said.

It notes the sharp contrast between these hot housing markets, and the story in the oil-producing provinces.

Comment: Which is why we can never average out this massive country of ours.

Calgary house sales plunge

Calgary’s affordability improved as lower oil prices started to have an effect, in the form of fewer sales and more homes on the market.

Comment: Their market is in collapse, affordability might be good for buyers, but sellers are up the river. They are dumping property and taking a hit, not good.

House sales fell by 35% in Calgary in December 2014 and January 2015, and there was a wave of new listings, but that has yet to translate into lower prices, RBC said. That situation may not last long, as RBC analysts say they’re already seeing prices for bungalows drop and other segments of the market may not be far behind.

“After showing impressive resilience in the face of plunging oil prices since last summer, market confidence gave in to a wave of cutbacks announced by the oil industry and collapsed as the winter rolled in,” its report said.

Comment: And yet, oil has risen 20% since the low point a couple months back. As it rises, confidence returns to Alberta and things should stabilize.

Saskatchewan home resales also fell by 4.6% in the fourth quarter and 19% in January, reflecting the impact of decreased oil revenue. Average prices were down by 0.6% for bungalows and two-storey homes, though there is still is strong demand for condos.

RBC said it’s a buyer’s market now in Saskatchewan, especially in Regina and Saskatoon, where prices had been “under downward pressure even prior to the fourth quarter.”

Atlantic Canada most affordable

Affordability improved in Manitoba, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, which has long had among the most affordable housing in the country.

Comment: Anywhere people don’t want to live and where the economy is weak, then housing is lower priced. Most people moving to Canada want to come to Vancouver or the GTA. They don’t flock to Montreal or Halifax.

Vancouver, by contrast, is the least affordable market and that didn’t improve in the final quarter of 2014. House resales were at a four-year high, but there was little new supply on the market, heating up home prices.

Toronto saw robust demand that drove up prices, though gains among condo resales were much lower, RBC said.

Comment: For on month, don’t make a trend out of 28 days.

“This contributed to raise the ownership bar ever higher and further deterioration in affordability,” its report said.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto real estate agent with Century 21 Regal Realty.
He did not write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who
are interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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