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Oil price to push down home sales 1.1% in 2015: Real estate association

Alexandra Posadzki – The Canadian Press

The Canadian Real Estate Association is predicting that the impact of declining oil prices on consumer confidence in some provinces will push down Canadian home sales by 1.1% this year, to 475,700 units countrywide.

Comment: By averaging out the decline in Alberta across the whole country.

CREA also estimates the national average home price will grow by 2% to $416,200 this year, a smaller increase than last year, as Alberta’s average home prices slip by an estimated 3.4% this year to $387,600.

Comment: So what is the price rise if Alberta is removed? Last year everyone liked to show that values were lower if Toronto and Vancouver were removed, so remove the negative values in Alberta and lets see where we are at.

Calgary
The association had earlier predicted home sales would be 0.8% above 2014, rising to 485,200 units, but revised its outlook lower to reflect the falling price of oil.

Provinces with significant oil production will see lower home sales. Alberta is expected to see sales fall by 19.3% in 2015, Saskatchewan by 11.2%, Manitoba by 2.2% and Newfoundland by 1%.

However, RBC Economist Robert Hogue said the oil price-related turbulence in Western Canada looks like it may subside soon.

“It is encouraging to see possible signs that the worst may soon be over in Calgary and Saskatchewan,” Hogue said in a note. “In particular, we point to the drop in new listings in these markets as a positive development that, if sustained, would suggest to us that panic is not setting in and that activity may be close to reaching a floor.”

Canada’s other provinces will continue to see higher sales and relatively stable or higher average sales prices, according to CREA.

British Columbia is projected to see the number of home sales increase by 4.9%, Nova Scotia by 3.7% and Quebec and New Brunswick by 2.5%.

Ontario is expected to see a 1.9% boost in sales levels from 2014, while Prince Edward Island is projected to see sales activity rise by 1.4%.

The B.C. average home price is expected to rise 3.4% this year over 2014 to $587,600 and Ontario’s average price will grow 2.5% to $441,900. Apart from those two provinces and Alberta, prices elsewhere are expected to be within 1% of last year.

TD Economist Diana Petramala said although rock-bottom interest rates will fuel housing demand over the short term, “the impact is likely to fade as 2015 unfolds.” Overall, Petramala predicts sales will remain relatively flat over the course of the year and price growth will slow down to about one to two%.

“A stable housing market means the Bank of Canada will be in no rush to raise or lower interest rates over the near term,” Petramala said in a note.

Comment: “No rush to raise interest rates”

Meanwhile, home sales in February were up one% from January after several months of back-to-back declines, though the picture was dramatically different in various regions.

The overall increase was led by the Vancouver and Okanagan regions in B.C. and Toronto. However, CREA said sales were lower in more than half of all local markets compared with January as buyers on the Prairies stayed on the sidelines amid low oil prices.

Compared with a year ago, sales last month were up 2.7% from February 2014.

The number of newly listed homes fell 2.5% in February compared to January.

The national average price for a home sold in February was $431,812, up 6.3% on a year-over-year basis.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto real estate agent with Century 21 Regal Realty.
He did not write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who
are interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.

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Summary
Oil price to push down home sales 1.1% in 2015: Real estate association
Article Name
Oil price to push down home sales 1.1% in 2015: Real estate association
Description
Provinces with significant oil production will see lower home sales. Canada's other provinces will continue to see higher sales and relatively stable or higher average sales prices, according to CREA.

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