Toronto Real Estate Board predicts growth will continue right through 2014.

Susan Pigg – Toronto Star

Neither weather nor warnings that Toronto’s housing market is overpriced managed to dampen a market that continued to defy the naysayers through 2013.

Comment: Because the market does not listen to the lame “predictions” of the so-called “experts”. The market does what people like me say it will, because of the reasons we give. Just because some people think that the market will slow down or decline does not change the underlying factors that are driving the sales and prices. Unless people stop moving to the GTA, builders start making 10 times more new freehold detached houses, land suddenly gets cheaper, mortgage rates triple and everyone moves back in with their parents, this is all going to continue the way it has for the past 17 years now.

Total home sales were up 2% last year over 2012 — and up almost 14% in December alone, despite a wet spring and one of the snowiest pre-Christmas months in years, according to year-end figures released Monday by the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Comment: And here I was saying that bad weather would slow things down. Nope, I was certainly wrong. Even with this frightening cold, I bet we now see a January that blows away January 2013. Even with the bad weather that month as well.

House prices were up 5.2% in 2013 compared to 2012, with the average selling price hitting $523,036 compared to $497,130 in 2012 as even the closely watched condo sector ended the year on a high.

Resale home prices were up almost 9% across the GTA in December alone, with the average sale price coming in at $520,398 compared to $477,756 a year earlier, says TREB.

Comment: And with ZERO new houses being built in the 416, that is only ever going to rise. Even in Pickering, there are barely any new homes – and the ones you do find start at almost $720,000, with most over $800,000 and all the infills over $1 million. And that is not even in the 416!

The one thing that could take some heat out of the market — an increase in interest rates — could come this year. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty warned in an interview with CTV on Sunday that Canada will face global pressure to raise rates in 2014 as the U.S. Federal Reserve pulls back on its stimulus efforts and the U.S. economy rebounds.

Comment: So what? They aren’t going to go that high. We set records in 2007 and 2011 with rates higher than now. We saw rates rise a touch back in the summer, and it did nothing whatsoever to slow things down.

Even last year’s slight, and unexpected, bump up in rates had an almost immediate impact on the Toronto housing market as buyers rushed to get in before 90- and 120-day mortgage commitments expired, which sent sales surging and warnings from economists that the buying spree will likely be reflected in lower sales numbers for 2014.

Comment: Yes, but that rush continued after those rate guarantees expired. Most ended in October, so why were November and December still busy? That mortgage rate argument holds no water.

The country’s largest real estate board predicts price growth will continue and exceed inflation in 2014, largely because demand for lowrise houses continues to far outstrip supply: New listings were down almost 4% in December, which helped fuel frantic bidding wars in some highly sought after Toronto neighbourhoods close to the downtown and transit lines.

Comment: And there are no houses being built, so supply cannot ever rise. In fact, as we are seeing, listings and supply are dropping. At the same time, demand only ever increases. For every 10 people that bid on a house, 9 don’t get it, and thus remain in the demand pool. But more and more people are added to the demand every day, every week. So demand can never abate, since it grows while supply shrinks.

“The seller’s market conditions that drove price growth in the second half of 2013 will remain in place in many parts of the GTA. Some neighbourhoods, especially those characterized by lowrise house types like singles, semis and townhomes, will continue to have less than two months of inventory,” noted TREB senior manager of market analysis Jason Mercer.

Six months’ supply of housing inventory for sale is considered a healthy, balanced market. A shortage of listings has plagued the GTA market for more than three years now as baby boomers stay put and homeowners opt to renovate their homes rather than pay hefty real estate fees and land transfer taxes for properties that, in many cases, end up in bidding wars that continue to drive prices into the stratosphere.

Even the condo market rebounded in 2013 after sales, and prices, started slipping in 2012 in the face of persistent warnings the market was oversupplies and a bubble about to burst.

Comment: But the naysayers were wrong. Sales of everything slipped in late 2012 and early 2013 because of the mortgage rule changes.

Resale condo transactions saw the biggest increase of any sector of the housing market, with sales up 27.8% in December, year over year, fuelled largely by low interest rates and demand for lower-cost housing options.

Comment: And fewer new condo launches.

Condo prices were up 6%, year over year, to an average of $343,943 across the GTA.

The biggest gains were in the City of Toronto where sale prices were up about 7.6% to $367,376, according to TREB’s figures, compared to price increases in the 905 regions averaging 4.6%, bringing the average condo sale price in the suburban regions to $293,883.

Comment: Which points to houses in the 905 getting too expensive as well.

Townhomes were the next most popular in a region where affordability is becoming more challenging: Sales were up almost 15% in December of 2013 versus a year earlier and prices were up 11.2% overall, bested only by detached homes which saw the biggest price gains with prices up an average of 12.5% in December year over year.

Detached home sales were up 7.1% in December over a year earlier, but saw a significant decline in the City of Toronto — down 6.7% — compared to a 12.6% increase in the 905 regions, in large part a reflection of the inadequate number of houses for sale in the city to meet demand.

That inventory problem helped drive up average sale prices a stunning 18.9% in the City of Toronto, with the average transaction price hitting $864,351 in December. Prices were up 11.4% in the suburbs to an average of $627,097, according to TREB.

Semi-detached home sales were up 8.8% in the 416 region and down almost 1% in the 905 regions, but prices were up 15.9% (to $644,423) and 6.6% (to $411,857) respectively.

Townhome sales were up 13.2% in Toronto and 15.4% in the suburbs in December, year over year. Prices climbed by 13.4% in Toronto, to an average of $447,188, while they were up 10.3% in the 905 regions to an average $384,095.

Condos sales were UP 20.7% in Toronto and the mere 374 transactions in the 905 regions represented a 46.1% increase in sales in December, year over year, driving overall resale condo transactions up 27.8% across the GTA last month.

Prices were up 7.6% in Toronto to an average of $367,376 compared to increases averaging 4.6% in the 905 regions, with sales prices averaging $293,883.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto Realtor with Century 21 Regal Realty. He did not
write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who are
interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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