According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales activity edged higher on a month-over-month basis in October 2014.

Highlights:

* National home sales rose 0.7% from September to October.
* Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity stood 7% above October 2013 levels.
* The number of newly listed homes rose 0.8% from September to October.
* The Canadian housing market remains balanced.
* The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 5.5% year-over-year in October.
* The national average sale price rose 7.1% on a year-over-year basis in October.

The number of home sales processed through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations edged up 0.7% in October 2014 compared to September. This marks the sixth consecutive month of stronger resale housing activity compared to a quiet start to the year, and the strongest activity for the month of October since 2009.

“Low interest rates continued to support sales in some of Canada’s more active and expensive urban housing markets and factored into the monthly increase for national sales,” said CREA President Beth Crosbie. “Even so, sales did not increase in many local markets in Canada, which shows that national and local housing market trends can be very different. All real estate is local and your REALTOR® is your best source for information about how the housing market is shaping up where you currently live or might like to in the future.”

“While the strength of national sales activity is far from being a Canada-wide phenomenon, it extends beyond Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Sales in a number of B.C. markets have started to recover from weaker demand over the past couple of years. They have also been improving across much of Alberta, where inter-provincial migration and international immigration are reaching new heights.”

Comment: As I have been saying, there are more than 3 hot markets.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in October stood 7% above levels reported in the same month last year. October sales were up from year-ago levels in about 70% of all local markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Victoria, Calgary, and Greater Toronto. Combined sales in these five markets account for almost 40% of national sales activity, and nearly 60% of the year-over-year increase in national sales this month.

Comment: Probably 40% of the population as well, which helps to explain it. It is not like 5% of the country accounts for 50% of the sales. There is a reason the activity is high in those areas.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity for the year-to-date in October was 5.2% above levels in the first 10 months of 2013 and slightly above (+2.5%) the 10-year average for the same period.

The number of newly listed homes rose 0.8% in October compared to September. While new supply was down in just over half of all local markets, outsized gains in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Greater Toronto boosted the national figure.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio was 55.7% in October. With sales and new listings having once again moved in tandem, the sales-to-new listings ratio held steady for the third consecutive month.

A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60% is usually consistent with a balanced housing market, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets respectively. The ratio was within this range in just over half of all local markets in October. About 70% of the remaining markets posted ratios above this range, almost all of which are located in British Columbia, Alberta and Southern Ontario.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between housing supply and demand. It represents the number of months it would take to completely liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.8 months of inventory nationally at the end of October 2014. It has held to a narrow range between 5.8 and 6.0 months since May of this year. As with the sales-to-new listings ratio, the number of months of inventory remains well within balanced market territory while pointing to a national market that has become tighter since the beginning of the year, when sales got off to a slow start.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI rose by 5.51% on a year-over-year basis in October. Price gains have held steady between 5% and 5-1/2% since the beginning of the year.

Year-over-year price growth accelerated for two-storey single family homes, townhouse/row units, and apartment units in October. By contrast, price momentum slowed further for one-storey single family homes.

Two-storey single family homes continue to post the biggest year-over-year price gains (+6.94%), followed closely by townhouse/row units (+5.83%) and one-storey single family homes (+4.75%). Price growth for apartment units remains comparatively more modest (+3.51%).

Price growth varied among housing markets tracked by the index. As in recent months, Calgary (+9.47%), Greater Toronto (+8.30%), and Greater Vancouver (+6.03%) continued to post the biggest gains.

Prices were up between 1% and 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in the Fraser Valley, Victoria, and Vancouver Island, flat in Saskatoon, Ottawa, Greater Montreal, and Greater Moncton, and down 3.4% in Regina.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) provides a better gauge of price trends than is possible using averages because it is not affected by changes in the mix of sales activity the way that average price is.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in October 2014 was $419,699, up 7.1% from the same month last year.

The national average price continues to be pulled upward by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $330,596 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 5.4%.

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Contact Laurin Jeffrey for more information – 416-388-1960

Laurin Jeffrey is a Toronto real estate agent with Century 21 Regal Realty.
He did not write these articles, he just reproduces them here for people who
are interested in Toronto real estate. He does not work for any builders.
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